Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
