A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
